Energy Transition | WelCAN V0.5

Why are we changing our Electricity System?

We all know that rising CO2 levels are causing climate change because we:

See this in the increasing number of severe weather events and threats, such as the critical water shortages in Teheran.
Experience this in our skyrocketing insurance premiums and the increasing inability to insure our homes.

To avert further climate change, we need to stop adding CO2 into the atmosphere and start removing CO2.

The key to this is to move our energy systems from molecules to electrons.

Molecules such as coal, oil and gas:

Are expensive to find, extract, transport, refine and distribute.
Are inefficient (in that less than 10% of the energy extracted ends up providing a useful function to us such as moving us).
Are subject to price and availability geopolitical shocks (such as the huge and sustained increase in global gas and coal prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).
It is not about finding more molecules, even if they could be burnt with zero emissions or at lower prices than today. Their built-in inefficiencies render them uncompetitive in a world of renewables.
The future use of molecules in the energy system is bleak, but we will still need them for petrochemicals, such as plastic.

Electrons means electrifying everything: changing how we move people and stuff, heat things, cool things and cook, at home and within industry and business.

This requires a lot more generation, in addition to the insatiable demand growth from AI data centres.

More electricity demand means more power plants which need to use low or zero emission technologies (solar, wind, hydro, and possibly nuclear) so we don't add to the CO2 problem.

These new plants must be located where their input energy source is and thus require around 6,000km of new transmission lines. Note we also need to refurbish and strengthen our existing 40-70 year-old transmission lines.

This essential new infrastructure will impact communities in new locations but also offers many local benefits: construction and operations jobs, reduced electricity costs for affected communities, drought-proof income for affected farmers and better grid reliability from local grid-scale batteries.

We are literally building a new energy system:

One with different “fuel” sources in new locations with different "extraction", "transport" and "storage" systems.
One that is decentralised, more efficient, resilient and democratic than our current 100-year old, centralised system.
Which must be delivered within the next 3-7 years as coal-fired power stations will be gone within 10 years and nuclear cannot replace them at the same scale before 2050*.
Which will deliver abundant energy at a lower cost than any alternative.

Transition is hard:

Nothing new is perfect (and never will be); known problems need better solutions, let alone unknown future problems.
But the innovation rate and cost reduction trends are staggering and strongly in our favour, and
There is a strong business case for the necessary and huge investment.

There is no going back to yesterday's solutions; our only path is to accelerate the transition. Just as the rest of the world is making this transition. From China's staggering transition achievements to developing nations like Pakistan leap-frogging fossil fuel systems.

Still uncertain? Ask yourself: With coal retiring, where will my electricity come from?

More Information:

Nuclear timetable: Assume it will be 2031 before Coalition can get elected, 4-5 years to get first projects started (2035-36), 8-10 years to build first plant (2043-2046), need 8-10 plants to deliver 15Gw with perhaps 2-3 concurrent builds (mid-2050s completion).